Ahoura Jafari Manesh

Biographical Summary

I joined ETH Zurich in January 2015. My PhD project consists in modeling "Multi-Risks and Interdependencies” as a part of the NFP70 project. I have completed my master thesis titled as; “Improvement of the method of Matrix Risk Analysis for Comparative Multi Risks Multi Hazards Assessment” in LUCRAM, Lund University center for risk assessment and management, Sweden, in collaboration with Polytechnique University of Milan in 2014.

During the course of my study in Polytechnique University of Milan and Lund University, I received experiences and expertise in elastic/plastic analysis of structures, numerical methods for mathematical modeling of the behavior of natural hazards, computational mechanic and finite elements methods, risk management and risk analysis, river hydraulic and flood risk assessment, soil-structure interaction and geo techniques, hazard from industrial sites and hydro geological risk and vulnerability analysis as well as emergency planning for extreme events.

My main research interests include:

  • Multi risk and analysis of mass events, Decision making under uncertain environment, Risk perception and crisis management.
  • Infrastructural planning and design, Network theory and modeling, Analysis of structures prone to risk. Comparative risk assessment in the energy sector: safe, secure, and sustainable energy supply.


SCCER-SoE Responsibilities

My responsibilities as a part of the NRP 70 project consist in modelling triggered chains of events and studying their consequences on different infrastructures typologies using a Generic multi-risk assessment framework (GenMR) by Mignan et al. (2014). This methodology is developed based on the sequential Monte Carlo method and on a variant of a Markov chain to consider all possible interactions at the hazard and risk levels in a harmonized platform.

My PhD will build upon the GenMR framework by following a top-down approach to multi-risk of hydro- and geo-energies based on the following order:

  • Potential chains of events at dams and deep geothermal sites will be investigated based on an extensive literature survey and on reasoned imagination.
  • General multi-risk scenarios and their impacts will be developed using GenMR framework.
  • A harmonized energy related Multi-risks picture of Switzerland will be developed by making a data switch from the simplified/generic (previous step) to site-specific data.


Contact information